Chinese Submarines to Feature Satellite-Killing Lasers: A New Era in Naval Warfare

Key Takeaway

Chinese scientists are developing laser-equipped submarines to target satellites stealthily from underwater, marking a significant shift in anti-satellite (ASAT) warfare. This technology could enhance China’s military capabilities, providing a strategic advantage by keeping ASAT operations concealed and offering a versatile tool for various naval tasks.

Summary

• Chinese Scientists’ Proposal: Development of laser-equipped submarines to target satellites.
• Stealth Advantage: Submarines can remain submerged, avoiding detection during ASAT operations.
• Laser Technology: Megawatt-class, solid-state laser weapons proposed for submarines.
• Operational Security: Use of retractable optoelectronic masts to fire lasers at satellites.
• Inefficiency of Missiles: Missiles are less effective against small, numerous satellites.
• Mass Production: Proposal for mass production of laser-equipped submarines.
• Additional Capabilities: Submarines could also attack anti-submarine aircraft, escort merchant ships, and strike land-based targets.
• Nuclear Submarines: Ideal platforms due to their power supply and stealth.
• Persistent ISR: Impact of space-based intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance on naval operations.
• Future Operational Environment: Submarines with ASAT-directed energy weapons supporting joint force operations.
• Challenges: Submarine-mounted lasers’ drawbacks, including vulnerability and technical issues.
• Ocean Transparency: Advancements in detection technologies could undermine submarine stealth.

Main Article

Chinese scientists have proposed a groundbreaking idea for naval warfare. They plan to equip submarines with lasers that can target satellites. This development could greatly change anti-satellite (ASAT) warfare. Anti-satellite warfare involves techniques to destroy or disable satellites. These laser-equipped submarines would offer a stealthy and flexible option for different military operations.

The Proposal

The South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that a team led by Professor Wang Dan from the Naval Submarine Academy suggested equipping Chinese submarines with megawatt-class, solid-state laser weapons. These lasers would be capable of targeting satellites, including SpaceX’s extensive Starlink network, while the submarine remains submerged.

Stealth Advantage

One of the primary advantages of this proposal is the enhanced stealth capability. Traditional ASAT operations rely on ground-to-air missiles, which can easily reveal the launch site’s location. In contrast, submarines can use retractable optoelectronic masts to fire lasers at satellites and then dive back to depth, maintaining operational security and the element of surprise.

Inefficiency of Missiles

The report highlights the inefficiency of using missiles against small, numerous, and densely packed satellites like those in the Starlink program. Missiles are less effective in such scenarios, making lasers a more viable option. The study advocates for the mass production of laser-equipped submarines to counter these military threats.

Additional Capabilities

In addition to ASAT operations, laser-equipped submarines could perform various tasks, including attacking anti-submarine aircraft, escorting merchant ships, and striking land-based targets. Nuclear attack submarines (SSNs) are considered ideal platforms for these laser weapons due to their nuclear reactors, which provide sufficient power for such energy-intensive weapons while retaining the stealth advantage.

Persistent ISR and Submarine Advantage

In a June 2024 article for the US Naval Institute (USNI), Liam Nawara emphasized the potential of SSNs to maintain unhindered freedom of maneuver under persistent space-based intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR). Nawara mentioned that as the cost-to-launch into low-Earth orbit (LEO) decreases, satellite constellations will support more persistent ISR, impacting maritime conflicts.

Future Operational Environment

Nawara envisions a future operational environment where submarines equipped with ASAT-directed energy weapons play a crucial role in achieving localized ISR superiority and supporting joint force operations. Submarines’ stealth capabilities make them suitable for such roles in an era where surface ships and land forces struggle for localized superiority due to the omnipresence of space-based ISR.

Technical and Tactical Considerations

H I Sutton, in a February 2020 Forbes article, discussed the potential effectiveness of submarine-mounted lasers against swarming unmanned surface vehicles (USVs). Lasers promise negligible costs per shot, unlike gun and missile-based systems. Sutton also mentioned that submarine-mounted lasers could strike coastal targets such as submarine piers or communications masts. However, he noted the caveat that the target must be of sufficiently high value to justify the risk of placing the submarine so close to a hostile shore.

Challenges and Drawbacks

Despite their potential, submarine-mounted lasers have significant drawbacks. Tyler Rogoway, in a July 2020 article for The War Zone, mentioned that mast-mounted submarine weapons systems, such as SLAMs and potentially lasers, might only be useful as a last line of defense. These systems require the submarine to be dangerously close to the surface to take a shot, leaving it vulnerable to attack.

Vulnerability and Technical Issues

Rogoway pointed out that using SLAMs or submarine-mounted lasers could allow for plausible deniability, as the nationality of the attacking submarine might not be known before an attack. However, if the attack fails to destroy its intended target outright, it could give away the submarine’s position, leading to its potential destruction. He also noted technical issues in mounting such systems on the limited space of a submarine mast.

Physical Constraints

In January 2024, Asia Times highlighted the constraints of current laser weapons, including physical, weight, power, and cooling requirements, which may not be feasible on surface warships and even less so on submarines. Rogoway emphasized that such weapons might be a last resort, given their significant implications and the conflict with traditional submarine warfare tactics.

Ocean Transparency

The idea of submarine-mounted lasers could be negated by the increasing transparency of the world’s oceans. Advancements in technologies such as commercial satellite imagery, synthetic aperture radar, hydroacoustic monitoring, and social media could make the oceans “transparent,” undermining submarine stealth.

The Future of Submarine Warfare

In a March 2023 article for The Conversation, Roger Bradbury and his team discussed the potential for future detection of submarine movements and their environmental impacts. They conducted a comprehensive analysis using Intelfuze software to provide thorough, transparent, and updatable probabilistic evaluations, particularly suitable for addressing issues with uncertain and speculative data.

Transparent Oceans by 2050s

According to their findings, it is highly probable (with a 90% likelihood from some perspectives) that the oceans will become transparent in most cases by the 2050s. This high-confidence estimate suggests that submarines, including nuclear-powered ones, will likely be detectable in the world’s oceans due to advancements in science and technology, despite any developments in stealth technologies.

Tables

Table 1: Key Features of Laser-Equipped Submarines

Feature	Description
Stealth Capability	Submarines remain submerged, avoiding detection during ASAT operations
Laser Technology	Megawatt-class, solid-state laser weapons
Operational Security	Use of retractable optoelectronic masts to fire lasers at satellites
Versatility	Capable of attacking anti-submarine aircraft, escorting merchant ships, and striking land-based targets
Nuclear Submarines	Ideal platforms due to their power supply and stealth

Table 2: Challenges and Drawbacks of Submarine-Mounted Lasers

Challenge	Description
Vulnerability	Submarines need to be close to the surface, making them vulnerable to attack
Technical Issues	Limited space on a submarine mast for mounting lasers
Physical Constraints	Current laser weapons require significant power, cooling, and space
Ocean Transparency	Advancements in detection technologies could undermine submarine stealth

Conclusion

The development of laser-equipped submarines represents a significant shift in naval warfare, providing a stealthy and versatile platform for ASAT and other military operations. While the technology promises many advantages, it also faces significant challenges and potential drawbacks. As advancements in detection technologies continue, the future of submarine warfare remains uncertain, with the possibility that the oceans may become transparent by the 2050s. This potential shift underscores the need for continuous innovation and adaptation in military strategies and technologies.

References

1. South China Morning Post (SCMP), “Chinese Scientists Propose Laser-Equipped Submarines for ASAT Operations,” June 2024.
2. Liam Nawara, “US Naval Institute (USNI) Article on SSNs and ASAT Capabilities,” June 2024.
3. H I Sutton, “Forbes Article on Submarine-Mounted Lasers,” February 2020.
4. Tyler Rogoway, “The War Zone Article on SLAMs and Submarine-Mounted Lasers,” July 2020.
5. Asia Times, “Constraints of Current Laser Weapons on Submarines,” January 2024.
6. Roger Bradbury et al., “The Conversation Article on Ocean Transparency and Submarine Detection,” March 2023.

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