Asteroid Apophis to Pass Close to Earth in 2029: Key Facts and Mission Plans

Asteroid Apophis to Pass Close to Earth in 2029: Key Facts and Mission Plans

Key Takeaways

The European Space Agency is launching the Ramses mission to study asteroid 99942 Apophis. Apophis will pass closer to Earth than the orbit of geosynchronous satellites on April 13, 2029. Ramses will observe changes in Apophis’ structure and orbit due to Earth’s gravitational influence. The mission aims to enhance our understanding of near-Earth objects (NEOs) and planetary defense. NASA’s OSIRIS-APEX will also study Apophis, arriving ten days after the close encounter.

Summary

• Ramses Mission: Rapid Apophis Mission for Space Safety by the European Space Agency (ESA).
• Launch Date: Planned for April 2028 to meet Apophis in February 2029.
• Close Encounter: Apophis will pass within 19,794 miles (31,860 kilometers) of Earth.
• Size of Apophis: Approximately 1,230 feet (375 meters) across.
• Scientific Value: Rare opportunity to study a large asteroid’s close flyby.
• Impact Risk: Initially thought to have potential impact in 2029, 2036, or 2068; now ruled out for the next 100 years.
• Observation Goals: Analyze Apophis’ response to Earth’s gravity, structure, density, porosity, and composition.
• Orbit Change: Earth’s gravity will change Apophis’ orbit from an Aten-type to an Apollo-type asteroid.
• NASA Collaboration: OSIRIS-APEX mission will complement Ramses’ findings.

Introduction

On April 13, 2029, asteroid 99942 Apophis will make a close approach to Earth, passing closer than the orbit of geosynchronous satellites. This rare event presents a unique scientific opportunity, prompting the European Space Agency (ESA) to fast-track the Ramses mission (Rapid Apophis Mission for Space Safety). By closely observing Apophis, scientists aim to enhance our understanding of near-Earth objects (NEOs) and improve planetary defense strategies. This article explores the Ramses mission’s objectives, the significance of Apophis’ flyby, and the collaborative efforts with NASA’s OSIRIS-APEX mission.

The Ramses Mission: Rapid Apophis Mission for Space Safety

The Ramses mission is designed to study asteroid 99942 Apophis as it makes its close approach to Earth in 2029. This mission represents a critical step in humanity’s efforts to learn more about near-Earth asteroids and how to deflect them if one is ever found on a collision course with our planet.

Launch and Timeline

To meet Apophis in February 2029, the Ramses mission must launch by April 2028. The ESA has already begun planning the mission, with formal adoption and funding approval expected at the ESA’s Ministerial Council meeting in November 2025.

Apophis’ Close Encounter with Earth

Asteroid Apophis, approximately 1,230 feet (375 meters) across, will pass within 19,794 miles (31,860 kilometers) of Earth on April 13, 2029. For comparison, geosynchronous satellites orbit at 22,236 miles (35,786 kilometers) above Earth’s surface. Such a close flyby of a large asteroid occurs only once every 5,000 to 10,000 years.

Initial Impact Risk and Current Understanding

When Apophis was discovered in 2004, it was initially thought to pose a significant impact risk, with potential collision dates in 2029, 2036, or 2068. However, as our knowledge of Apophis’ orbit improved, the impact risk was ruled out for at least the next 100 years. “Nature is bringing one to us and conducting the experiment itself. All we need to do is watch as Apophis is stretched and squeezed by strong tidal forces,” said Patrick Michel, Director of Research at CNRS at Observatoire de la Côte d’Azur in Nice, France.

Scientific Importance

The close encounter provides a rare opportunity to study how Apophis reacts to Earth’s gravitational forces. Observing these interactions will help scientists learn about the asteroid’s internal structure, density, porosity, and composition—critical information for any potential deflection efforts.

Ramses Mission Objectives

Before-and-After Surveys

By arriving at Apophis before its close encounter with Earth, the Ramses mission can conduct detailed before-and-after surveys. This will allow scientists to observe any disturbances or changes in the asteroid’s structure caused by Earth’s gravitational forces.

Understanding Apophis’ Composition

Analyzing how Apophis’ surface responds to tidal forces will reveal new material from beneath the surface. This data is crucial for understanding the asteroid’s composition and how it formed in the early solar system.

Orbit Changes

One expected outcome of the close encounter is a change in Apophis’ orbit. Currently, Apophis is classified as an Aten-type asteroid, with an orbit smaller than Earth’s. After the encounter, Earth’s gravitational influence will shift Apophis’ orbit, classifying it as an Apollo-type asteroid with a longer orbit around the sun.

Collaborative Efforts with NASA

OSIRIS-APEX Mission

NASA’s OSIRIS-APEX mission will complement the Ramses mission by providing additional observations of Apophis. OSIRIS-APEX, formerly known as OSIRIS-REx, successfully returned a sample from asteroid Bennu in 2023. The spacecraft will arrive at Apophis on April 23, 2029, ten days after the close encounter with Earth.

Mission Timeline

Upon arrival, OSIRIS-APEX will perform a flyby of Apophis at a distance of about 2,500 miles (4,000 kilometers). The spacecraft will then return in June 2029 to settle into orbit around Apophis for an 18-month mission, conducting detailed observations.

Additional ESA Missions: Hera and DART

Hera Mission

The ESA also plans to launch the Hera mission in October 2024. Hera will follow up on NASA’s DART mission, which tested kinetic impactor capabilities by colliding with the asteroid Didymos’ moonlet, Dimorphos. Hera will survey the binary asteroid system and analyze the impact crater to understand Dimorphos’ structure and composition post-impact.

DART Mission

The DART mission’s success in altering Dimorphos’ orbit demonstrated the potential for kinetic impactors to deflect hazardous asteroids. The Hera mission will provide valuable context for these findings by closely examining the impact site.

Learning from Apophis and Dimorphos

Comparative Analysis

Studying both Apophis and Dimorphos will enhance our understanding of near-Earth asteroids. By comparing the data from these missions, scientists can develop more effective strategies for planetary defense.

Planetary Formation Insights

In addition to planetary defense, these missions will offer insights into how asteroids and planets formed in the early solar system. Understanding the composition and structure of these asteroids will help scientists piece together the processes that led to the formation of Earth and other planets.

Conclusion

The Ramses mission represents a significant step forward in our efforts to study near-Earth asteroids and enhance planetary defense strategies. By closely observing Apophis’ close encounter with Earth, the mission will provide valuable data on the asteroid’s structure, composition, and response to gravitational forces. Collaborative efforts with NASA’s OSIRIS-APEX mission and the ESA’s Hera mission will further enrich our understanding of these space rocks, ultimately contributing to the safety and security of our planet.

“The more near-Earth asteroids like Dimorphos and Apophis that we study, the greater that context becomes. Perhaps, one day, the understanding that we have gained from these missions will indeed save our planet.”

Tables

References

1. European Space Agency (ESA). (2024). Ramses Mission Overview.
2. NASA/JPL-Caltech. (2024). Apophis 2029 Path Animation.

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